On October 4th, the U.S. September non-farm payroll data increased by 254,000 people, far exceeding expectations by more than 100,000 people. The U.S. stock market surged, and the White House urgently spoke out, praising the leadership of the Biden administration. This inevitably leads people to think that as the U.S. election approaches, is this move another instance of the U.S. resorting to data fraud to garner votes for the Democratic Party?

The U.S. non-farm data is praised, but the Federal Reserve suffers a loss of $200 billion, and the main reason is the high interest expenses. As a major source of revenue for the U.S. Treasury, the Federal Reserve suffers a huge loss. However, with the U.S. non-farm data being praised, will the U.S. continue to lower interest rates this year? What will happen to the U.S. $35 trillion debt?

JPMorgan Chase sings bearish on China

As a key target of the U.S. interest rate hike, China undoubtedly faced covetousness from U.S.-led capitalists during the past year's interest rate hike cycle. JPMorgan Chase even claimed that the Chinese stock market is experiencing the "last prosperity."

According to the views of some foreign institutions, it seems that China's economic growth rate has declined somewhat, and factors such as the sluggish real estate market may even lead to a collapse in the domestic stock market.

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This has driven a wave of belittling the Chinese stock market.

However, in reality, these so-called Wall Street elites may be a bit too impatient. Just as they were eager to make a big profit, our country's government resolutely introduced a series of policy combinations.

From reducing the stamp duty on stock transactions, to encouraging companies to repurchase stocks, to relaxing restrictions on securities financing and securities lending business, a series of measures are like a strong stimulant for the stock market, quickly boosting market confidence.The final outcome is that, not long ago, China's stock market did not perform as those people had anticipated; instead, it experienced a sharp rise. According to reports, short-sellers betting against China lost $6.9 billion in this round.

A significant amount of foreign capital is increasing its positions in China, and the Chinese stock market, which was previously labeled as not investable, is gaining more and more favor from foreign investors. For the United States, which has gone to great lengths to raise interest rates to retain hot money, the inflow of foreign capital into the Chinese stock market is clearly not something the U.S. wants to see.

On October 4th, the United States released the non-farm data for September. In just one month, the number of non-farm jobs in the U.S. far exceeded expectations, increasing by over 100,000 people.

Is this another instance of the United States fabricating data?

The implementation of the interest rate cut in September in the United States was largely due to the continuous underperformance of the U.S. non-farm data, coupled with the easing of U.S. inflation and the high levels of U.S. debt. However, on October 4th, the U.S. September non-farm data showed a leapfrog progress, increasing by 254,000 people, which was far more than the expected increase of over 100,000 people. The unemployment rate also dropped significantly, with the U.S. unemployment rate achieving a triple decline in just one month. The initial signs of a U.S. economic recession and the better-than-expected non-farm data: is this a sign of the resilience of the U.S. economy, or is it another instance of data fabrication?

The better-than-expected U.S. September non-farm data led to an upward trend in the closing prices of the three major U.S. stock indices, and the U.S. dollar index also soared. This was followed by a decline in gold prices.

The White House urgently issued a statement, boasting that the leadership of the Biden administration has brought good news to the U.S. unemployment rate, which has reached a new low in nearly 50 years.This inevitably brings to mind the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut to the present non-farm data. For the US election, it will only become increasingly favorable for the Democratic Party. Is this a conspiracy played by the US government?

It should be noted that with the implementation of the 50 basis point interest rate cut in the United States, Trump bluntly stated that either the US economy is too bad or it is playing politics. Now, the US economy does not seem to be as bad as imagined. If the US non-farm data in September is not fake, can the US economy recover so quickly in just one month? Is the US economy really resilient?

According to a report on October 4, there are tens of thousands of workers striking at US ports, and the phenomenon of "panic buying toilet paper" during the epidemic is repeated. Is the US economy really as reported, or is the US government playing politics again and faking data? This may only be known by the United States itself.

If judged by the current employment situation in the United States, the United States seems to have no need to cut interest rates. So, will the United States still cut interest rates this year?

The Federal Reserve suffers a huge loss of 200 billion, and the crisis escalates?

The Federal Reserve, known as the printing press by the outside world, no one would have thought that the Federal Reserve would still lose money, and it is a huge loss of 200 billion, which inevitably makes people curious, why the Federal Reserve, which controls the issuance of the dollar, would suffer a huge loss?

To talk about the Federal Reserve's loss of money, it is necessary to start with the Federal Reserve's balance sheet.

Although the Federal Reserve is hailed as the central bank, in fact, it is like a big company and has its own wallet - that is their balance sheet.

The way the Federal Reserve earns profits is to obtain profits from the assets they hold and subtract the interest expenses that need to be paid for those liabilities.

The assets held by the Federal Reserve are mainly US government-issued Treasury bonds and various types of bonds, while their liabilities mainly include some reverse repurchase projects and funds deposited as reserves.Generally speaking, due to the fact that the Federal Reserve's assets generate earnings higher than the interest they need to pay on their liabilities, they have been contributing hundreds of billions of dollars in profits to the U.S. Treasury annually for over a decade.

However, things have changed since the interest rate hikes began in 2022.

The phenomenon of inverted profit margins has occurred at the Federal Reserve.

The issue lies in the fact that the long-term Treasury bonds held by the Federal Reserve do not yield very high returns, while the interest rates on short-term Treasury bonds are alarmingly high, making it nearly impossible for the Federal Reserve to repay its debts.

Particularly noteworthy is that, in order to help the American banks that are constantly on the brink of bankruptcy to weather the storm and prevent a systemic financial collapse, the Federal Reserve has started directly injecting money into major banks, creating a large-scale movement of funds. However, this has led to a more severe "inversion" phenomenon.

You might also ask, when will the Federal Reserve be able to endure this financial deficit?

To be honest, in the short term, this problem is really difficult to solve.

That is to say, even though the Federal Reserve has already lost a total of 200 billion U.S. dollars, they will still have to continue to bear such losses for a long time in the future.

Therefore, where will the 36 trillion dollars of debt go?

The U.S. non-farm data exceeded expectations, and the Federal Reserve suffered a loss of 200 billion U.S. dollars.In this intricate economic environment, the Federal Reserve undoubtedly has to make a series of challenging policy decisions. As for whether interest rates will continue to be reduced in the future, that's a mystery; to be honest, it's not apparent at the moment. However, regardless of whether the Federal Reserve ultimately plans to raise interest rates or continue to lower them, this will have far-reaching and significant impacts on the economic conditions around the world, and it may even fundamentally alter the future global economic landscape.