Ray Dalio: China's Last Week "Historic," Comparable to Eurozone Debt Crisis Turning Point


Seeing the Wall Street news on October 2nd, Ray Dalio, the founder of the world's largest hedge fund Bridgewater, posted on social media about the recent surge in China's stock market, believing that the past week will be "recorded in history," comparable to the turning point of the European debt crisis!

Dalio mainly expressed his views on China's implementation of a package of economic stimulus and encouragement plans, focusing on the following aspects:

1. A series of policy shifts in China recently can be compared to the 2012 European Central Bank President Draghi's promise to "do whatever it takes" to preserve the euro.

2. Chinese assets are still very cheap, and various factors have jointly ignited the market's "animal spirit," with a large number of investors entering the market to bottom fish.

3. China needs to reorganize assets to achieve "perfect deleveraging." For "perfect deleveraging," he believes that it is necessary to create money and credit in a balanced way, with interest rates reduced below the level of inflation and nominal growth rate, reducing the debt burden without causing excessive inflation.

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4. He believes that highly stimulating policies will be introduced later to help and support asset prices.

From the above points of view, Dalio highly appraises China's implementation of a package of economic stimulus and encouragement plans. First, Chinese asset valuations are relatively low, with considerable investment value. Second, highly stimulating policies will continue to be introduced later to support the rise in asset prices. Third, China's policy goal is "perfect deleveraging."

Dalio is a well-known international investor, and his views should also be the mainstream views of international capital. This is similar to the statement by Wall Street big shot David Tepper, who "heavily bets on Chinese stocks and buys everything." From the surge in Hong Kong stocks during the National Day period, it seems that international capital has already increased its holdings of Chinese-related assets.

From Dalio's description of "perfect deleveraging," I think this is also one of the goals of the package of economic stimulus policies. To avoid a "balance sheet" recession similar to Japan's, starting with boosting the stock market, achieving the appreciation of social and personal assets, reducing the interest burden of corporate loans and residential mortgages, promoting income growth, and optimizing the overall balance sheet. At the same time, prices are controlled at an acceptable level, thus achieving the "perfect deleveraging" that Dalio mentioned.From the release of the new policy on 9.24, to the rapid rise in the stock market, and then to the swift implementation of specific policy measures, it can be understood that the economic policy objectives are not limited to the stock market, but rather consider a comprehensive approach, focusing on solving strategic issues. Therefore, the package of economic stimulus and encouragement policies is a major move and a good one. From this perspective, it will be understood that the goal of the stock market is not a "short bull market," but a long-term bull market that is worth looking forward to.

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