Ever since the United States released its unemployment rate and non-farm employment figures for September, there has been a substantial change in the expectations for the rise of the U.S. stock market. Data from the U.S. Department of Labor's statistics show that the number of new non-farm jobs in September, at 254,000, exceeded market expectations. The unemployment rate decreased from 4.3% to 4.1%, marking a decline for two consecutive months. These economic indicators suggest that the current expectations for a U.S. economic recession are not as severe as previously thought.

As a result, the overall logic of the U.S. stock market has undergone an anticipatory shift. Originally, the market anticipated that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates by 50 basis points in November, releasing ample liquidity. However, due to the change in data and the strong economic outlook, the market now widely accepts that the Federal Reserve will only cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November, with the probability of a 50 basis point cut dropping to 2%.

Therefore, in the short term, the data release is favorable for the U.S. stock market, while in the medium to long term, it is a long-term bearish factor for the U.S. stock market.

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The reason is the change in expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. Taking the current NASDAQ as an example, it plummeted by over 1% last night. The market was already highly valued and required greater liquidity to stimulate further increases in the U.S. stock market. However, with the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut now dashed, market expectations have changed, leading to a natural corresponding sell-off.

Has the U.S. stock market already reached its peak? What should we do?

Technically, there are no signs of a market top at the moment. However, from a macro perspective, we must still pay attention to the U.S. elections in November and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations in November, both of which could potentially drive the U.S. stock market to a peak. The risk has indeed become too high in the short term. Therefore, it might be wise to shift more focus to the A-share market, which is currently on the rise.