Massive $40B US Treasury Dump


Recently, the United States government nearly shut down, causing a flurry of activity at the U.S. Department of the Treasury. Although a short-term temporary appropriation was granted, the financial difficulties have not been resolved.

It is clear that continued appropriations are needed to meet the needs of the U.S. government's continued operation, but this will continuously increase the fiscal deficit of the United States.

Behind this series of issues, it highlights the dilemma and difficult choices faced by U.S. finance.

Firstly, if the U.S. Congress approves a large appropriation to solve the current financial difficulties, this will undoubtedly continue to expand the fiscal deficit of the United States, thereby exacerbating the national debt problem.

For a long time, the United States has been facing an increasingly growing debt burden, and the current financial crisis seems to be ahead of schedule. For Congress, approving a large appropriation is merely a means to solve the current problem, but it needs to face the challenge of future debt crises.

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On the other hand, if the United States cannot obtain sufficient appropriations, the government will shut down, which will not only affect the overall economy of the United States but also affect the lives of the people.

A government shutdown will cause the work of government departments to stagnate, affecting the normal operation of the domestic economy. A government shutdown will lead to millions of civil servants being furloughed without pay, making their lives unstable, and also affecting the lives of the public, such as social welfare, tax returns, passport issuance, and other aspects.

In summary, the possibility of the government shutting down at any time still looms over the United States.The relentless expansion of the United States' fiscal deficit has caused great concern among countries and investors holding U.S. Treasury bonds.

Recently, the U.S. national debt has surpassed 33 trillion. According to forecasts, this figure will soon break through 34 trillion.

The main reason behind this trend is the U.S. Treasury Department's increase in the borrowing plan for the fourth quarter, which is now expected to reach 1 trillion, an increase of nearly 20 billion U.S. dollars compared to previous predictions.

This means that the scale of borrowing is becoming larger and larger, further pushing up U.S. Treasury bond yields, and also indicating that interest payments next year will increase significantly.

However, the continuous increase in such borrowing and interest puts great pressure on the U.S. fiscal situation. The U.S. fiscal situation itself is in a deficit, and the problem of insufficient revenue has always troubled the government.

Nowadays, the amount of interest paid every year is continuously increasing, which will inevitably lead to an increasing deficit scale and further deterioration of the fiscal situation.

This phenomenon of an infinite vicious cycle has had a significant impact on the stability of the U.S. economy and finance, and at the same time, it has also made the United States' long-term allies begin to waver in confidence.

Now more and more countries are joining the ranks of selling U.S. Treasury bonds.

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As a long-term ally of the United States, the United Kingdom has provided the United States with a lot of political and economic support in the past.Recently, in an effort to avert risks, the United Kingdom has seen a significant decrease in its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, marking a major shift from its stance last year.

Looking back at September of last year, when the UK faced a triple whammy of stock, bond, and currency market turmoil, a substantial amount of capital flooded into the U.S. Treasury bond market, viewing it as a relatively safe investment option.

However, now the UK's holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds have begun to trend downward, with cumulative reductions exceeding $40 billion compared to the peak in March of this year.

The recent economic conditions in the UK have shown signs of improvement, with the first PMI released rising to 48.5, which is much better than expected, as the original forecast was merely 46.8.

At the same time, inflation in the UK is expected to drop below 5% this year, indicating that inflation is gradually coming under control.

Under these circumstances, the UK has lost confidence in the United States' debt repayment capabilities.

In March of this year, the first wave of bank bankruptcies in the United States triggered turmoil in the global financial markets. The UK may have begun to realize that over-reliance on U.S. Treasury bonds could bring potential risks.

Additionally, the UK government may also be reassessing its investment strategy. As the Brexit process progresses, they may wish to allocate more funds to domestic development and economic recovery rather than over-relying on U.S. Treasury bonds.

In the current international environment, the UK is just one of the sellers. An increasing number of U.S. allies are beginning to perceive the crises faced by the United States, and as a result, they are turning their investments elsewhere or placing greater emphasis on domestic development.

This shift reflects, to some extent, the changes in the global political and economic landscape and the concerns of allies towards the United States.

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